美国人看美国：经济政策的政治

--理论和现实的对比

文/他爹  翻译/ 丹奇

华盛顿DC关于经济政策的争论一直是围绕着财富，减税以及如何促进美国经济快速发展而进行的。不幸的是，共和党在最近关于经济政策的投票和对促进经济的立法所持的消极立场却是拉了经济发展潜力的后退。共和党基本上是在投票反对他们自己支持了几十年的那个政策。几乎所有的共和党国会议员对持续削减收入税的政策投了反对票，而这个政策却能使处于中产阶级的一千六百万美国人受益。也就是说，共和党要对中产阶级增加纳税的同时，却不想提高对只占美国人口百分之一的最富有人群的税收，其逻辑就是这些富人才是“就业机会的创造者”。 

不幸的是，他们错了！不仅仅就政策而言，而且就这些相同争论的历史，以及过去30年来对同一政策的结果而言。共和党持续攻击现任总统和他的政策以及阻止许多这些经济政策的实施实际上伤害了这个国家和成千上万的美国工人阶级。也许我会给现在的总统的总体表现评分为C等， 但是我要给共和党的诚实度评为F级。自从总统宣誓就职以来，共和党的策略便是想尽办法让本届总统和他的政策失败-然而这个策略伤害了这个国家，并使经济复苏雪上加霜。

上述论点的一个很好的例子就是当年提高中产阶级的税收，同时削减或保持富裕阶层（如共和党所称之为“工作的创造者”）税收所发生的真正后果。顾名思义，中产阶级不是富裕阶层。他们没多少存款，或投资。他们或许有一栋代表了他们最大投资的房子。他们基本上把所挣的钱用于养家糊口，只有少许的诸如一年一次休假的奢侈。如果对这些普通家庭增加纳税，比如100美元一个月，那么他们就没有这100块钱可以花。这是事实。美国是在40年代，50 年代60 年代中建立起来的。是通过中产积极的快速扩张实现的。中产阶级赚的工资随着技术，革新和效益的提升而成长。这些中产阶级有家庭，买房子，支付房地产税，从而建设学校和消防局，购买汽油，从而建设供他们开车的道路。拥有儿女且坚信儿女们长大后会比他们过得更好。

从一千六百万人身上每个月拿走100美元，你是在很严重地损坏这个国家的经济结构。他们没有这100快可花了。如果他们不把这100块钱花在杂货店，或者walmart， 或Target, 或Macy’s， 那么你会看到那些商店就会有更低的就业率，那些因为那一千六百万人总体地低消费而失去工作的雇员就没有钱花，从而形成就业减少，减少政府税收，政府部门财政赤字增加的恶性循环，

这可不是啥好现象。

那么，持续给那些富人减税，从而使他们能够投资并创造工作的说法现在已经证明是错误的。过去十年中，美国最富有的人们享受了万亿美元（对，万亿）的减税，但是，工作在哪里？他们没有把这些钱用于投资这里的新工厂或制造设施。为什么呢？因为把他们的税降到了历史最低点，他们便没有动力再去冒险了。我是啥意思？也就是说，富人的税率越低，他们投资的风险就越高。低税率导致人们更加保守。如果税率为35%，富人投资一个新的项目，然而项目失败，那么他们将要承受他们投资额的65%的损失（他们可以在下一个纳税年度用当年的收入抵消损失。所以，如果他们的损失是100块，就可以抵消100块的账。从而节省35块钱的税，他们自己投资的损失便是65块钱。）所以，如果税率是50%， 同样的投资---他们的风险就只有50块。但是，如果新的生意成功了，不管税率多高，他们都增加了收入。如果税率是90% （实际上100年前有过这个税率），那么，他们的风险就很小了。因为如果生意失败，他们只是损失了10%（因为他们为下一年节省了90块,他们只是损失了10块钱）。如果他们下一年赚了100块，他们就不需要交一分钱的税。因为他们可以抵消上一年的损失。然而，如果生意成功，那么他们的收入增长则是 数倍的---无论税率如何！

富人高税率（克林顿时代是39.6%, 而现在是35%）创造了更多的投资机会，因为作为富人，投资就有更多的优惠政策，因为政府留用了你的大部分收入。当政府持有你的收入减少了，你也失去冒险的动力，因为你如果投资失败，你下一年就没有多少可以抵税。更低的税率意味着富人们实际上有更多的风险。

因此，如果你是富人，而且你的税被减少了？ 存钱！不冒险！你根本没有必要去冒险！

底线就是低税率给了他们管理财富的动力，而不是创造更多财富的动力。高税收迫使富人们用他们的资本制造更多，如果他们想多赚钱的话。

九十年代我们看到了技术革命—微软，甲骨文，苹果公司，还有许多其他的。技术革命改变了我们乃至整个世界的生活方式。最近十年（2000年到2010年）没有看到新的发明---只是那些在“高税率环境中”起步的技术公司的成长。其他主要的成长是在中国的巨大变化---她已经成为世界的制造商。创造工作的人创造了工作—只不过是在中国和印度，而富人们享受那些海外收入的特殊税收政策使他们越来越富。但是，他们仍然没有在美国创造工作，他们倒是越来越富有，而其他99%的人还在原地踏步。

当共和党一直诟病总统那失败的刺激计划时，非党派管理和预算办公室（OMB）说这个刺激计划挽救了近三百五十万个工作。总统拯救了美国的汽车工业，挽救了壹佰肆拾万个工作，而共和党对此却是尖叫反对。那么，同样是这些汽车公司现在正在创造利润，逐渐拾回他们在过去15年里没有过的市场份额。而共和党曾经想让他们溃败（这样就可以伤害总统的经济措施和总体经济）。

自从“里根革命”开始，那些百分之一的富人们已经见到了他们的收入增长了百分之二百四十七。而另外百分之九十九的人收入只增长了百分之四十，连通货膨胀的速度都跟不上。过去三十年来，工人阶级的收入一直平平。

共和党说，总统发动“阶级斗争”要进行“财富再分配”（这个说法意味着要么是社会主义，要么是共产主义的政策）。共和党没有告诉你的是，过去三十年里，财富早就通过失败的经济，税收政策，以及对有组织的工会的打击，而从中产阶级手中重新分配到了富人的手里。

共和党，自称是关心“家庭价值”和“美国中产阶级”以及预算保守主义的政党，除了发动不必要的战争，没有支付的政府经费（比如处方药法案），给这个国家最富有的人减税万亿美元（对，万亿---一千个10亿）之外，啥也不是！这个党一方面要中产阶级纳更多的税，却要给富人更多的减税。

共和党的理论是公民必须支付他们的“公平份额”，这确实没错。唯一的问题是如何给公平下定义。百万富翁和亿万富翁比 普通美国百姓使用政府服务更多。生产成品或进出口产品的富商们使用受过教育的人---这些人大部分都是进的公立学校。他们通过美国海军出没的海域进出口商品到世界各地。他们在其他国家开工厂，要用到联邦政府去协助他们保持订单，公平，解决问题，并且创造对他们有利的贸易政策。这些是与那些联邦快递的卡车司机相比，对富翁们更有意义的工具。

经济政策在旁观者的眼里有点像艺术作品。但是一副丑陋的油画总是丑陋的，大家都明白。这就是共和党的经济政策---一副丑陋的油画，大家都心知肚明，只有画画的除外。

（原文）

THE POLITICS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES

THEORY VERSUS REALITY

By Tadie (December 29th, 2011)

The debate in Washington D.C. regarding economic policy has revolved around the wealthy, tax cuts, and how to get the U.S. economy growing faster. Unfortunately, the negative  stance of the Republican party in recent votes on policy and legislation to help boost the economy has held back the potential growth for the economy as a whole. Essentially, the Republicans now are voting against the same policies that they have supported for decades. Nearly all of the Republican members of Congress voted against keeping the payroll tax cut in place which benefits 160 million Americans, basically voting to raise taxes on that group of people – all the while not wanting to raise taxes on the wealthiest 1% of Americans based on the logic that the wealthy are the “job creators”.

Unfortunately, they are wrong not just on the policy but also on the history of these same arguments and the outcomes of those same policies over the past 30 years. The GoP’s continual assault on this President and his policies and thwarting implementation of many of those economic policies hurt this country and the hundreds of millions of working class Americans.  Although I would give this President a “C” grade overall I give the Republicans an “F” in honesty. Since the President was sworn into office the Republican strategy has been to make sure this President and his policies fail – but that strategy has harmed this country and is making the economic recovery even more difficult.

A great example of the above statement is real outcome of what happens when you raise taxes on the middle class and reduce or keep taxes low on the wealthy ( the job creators as Republicans call them ). The middle class by definition is not wealthy. They have little in savings or investment. They probably have a house which represents their largest investment. They basically spend all they earn to support their families and have a few luxuries such as a vacation once a year. By raising taxes on the average famiy, by about $100 per month, they don’t have this 100 dollar to spend in the economy. That’s a fact. America was built during the 1940’s and ‘50’s and 60’s by a rapidly expanding middle class that earned wages that kept growing with increases in technology, innovation and efficiencies. This middle class had families and bought houses and paid property taxes that built schools and funded fire departments, bought gas for cars that built roads for them to drive on. Had sons and daughters who they believed would live a better life than they did when they grew up.

Take away $100 a month from 160 million people and you seriously damage the economic fabric of this country. They won’t spend that money. If they don’t spend that money at the grocery store, or at Walmart or Target or Macy’s then you will see lower employment at those stores, and with those people who lose their jobs because of lower spending overall by the 160 million people they then will have no money to spend and it becomes a vicious cycle of reduced employment, reduced tax income to the government and growing budget deficits in all government sectors.

That’s not a good economic scenario.

Now, by continually reducing the tax rates on the wealthy ( the job creators ) so that they can invest and create jobs has proven to be false. Over the past 10 years the wealthiest Americans have benefited from a $1 Trillion ( yes, trillion ) tax break. But, where are the jobs ? They didn’t invest it in new plants or manufacturing facilities here. Why? Because by reducing their taxes to the lowest level in history they have no motivation to assume risk. What do I mean by that? Basically, the lower the tax rate to a wealthy person the more risk they assume when making an investment. Lower tax rates cause people to be more conservative. If the tax rate is 35% and the rich person invests in a new project and it goes broke they lose 65% of their investment ( they write off the loss on the next tax year against that current year income, so if they lost $100 they write off $100 against their income, saving $35 in taxes and losing $65 of their own money ). Now, if the tax rate is 50% and given the same investment – their risk s only $50. But, if the new business works out they increase their income regardless of the tax rate. If the tax rate is 90% ( which it actually as about 100 years ago ) then their risk is vey small  because if it doesn’t work out they only lose 10% ( since they save $90 on taxes for the next year. They only lost $10 ), and if they made a $100 in the next year they wouldn’t pay any taxes at all since they wrote off the loss from the prior year. BUT, if the new business was successful they would have the opportunity to increase their annual income many times over – regardless of the tax rate !

Higher taxes on the wealthy ( 39.6% during Clinton years vs. 35% now ) created an opportunity for more investment because as a wealthy person there was more incentive to invest because the government kept a larger share of your income. When the government share of your income is reduced you lose incentive to take risk because if you lose your investment you have less tax benefit the following year for write off. Lower taxes means the wealthy actually have “more at risk”.

So, what do you do if you’re wealthy and taxes are being reduced ? KEEP THE MONEY ! DON’T TAKE RISK ! YOU DON’T NEED TO !

The bottom line is that lower tax rates on the wealthy create incentive for them to manage wealth – not to create more. Higher tax rates force wealthy people to produce more with their capital if they want to earn more.

The decade of the 90’s saw the technology revolution – Microsoft, Oracle Corp, Apple Corp. and many others. It changed the way we, and the world live our lives. The most recent decade ( 2000 to 2010 ) saw no new innovations – just growth from those technology companies that got their start in a “higher tax rate environment”.  The other major growth was the huge change in China – as it became the manufacturer to the world. The job creators created jobs – they were just in China and India, and special tax treatment on those foreign earnings let them get even richer. But, they still didn’t create jobs in the USA, but they did get wealthier while the other “99%” stayed the same.

While the President has been deride for what the Republicans call his failed stimulus plan – the non partisan Office of Management and Budget ( OMB ) says the stimulus saved up to 3.5 million jobs. The President bailed out the American auto industry – much to the screaming of the GOP, saving perhaps 1.4 million jobs. Now, those same auto companies that the GOP wanted to fail ( which would also hurt the Presidents economic arguments and the overall economy ) are now producing profits and even growing picking up market share they haven’t had in 15 years !

Since the beginning of the “Reagan Revolution” the top 1% has seen their incomes grow by 247%. The other 99% saw their incomes grow just 40%, which didn’t even keep up with inflation. Income of the working class has been flat the last 3 decades.

The GOP says that the President is waging “class warfare” and wants to “redistribute wealth” ( a term which is coded to mean either socialist or communist policy ). What the GOP fails to tell you is that wealth has been redistributed, for the past 30 years from the middle class to the wealthy via failed economic and tax policies and the assault on organized union labor.

The Republicans, allegedly the party that is concerned with “famiy values” and “middle America” and budget conservatives has been nothing more than a party of unneeded wars, unpaid government mandates ( prescription drug bill ), and trillion dollar ( yes, trillion – a thousand billion ) tax cut to the wealthiest among this nation – and it wants to have the middle class pay more while giving more tax breaks to the rich.

The GOP argument that citizens need to pay their “fair share” is a good one. The only problem is defining what is fair. The millionaire or billionaire uses much more in government services than the normal American family. The wealthy businessman who produces products or imports or exports uses educated people – who most likely went to a public school. They import or export their goods around the world on seas which the US Navy is present. They work or open factories in other countries that will use the federal government to help maintain order, fairness, solve problems, and create favorable trade policies.  These are tools that make more sense to the wealthy than they do to the truck driver for FEDEX.

Economic policy is a little bit like art It’s in the eye of the beholder. But an ugly painting is always an ugly painting and everyone knows it. That’s what the GOP economic policy is – an ugly painting, and everyone knows it – except the painter.