笔者：Home Come

编辑：阿斯彭工作室

由于一连串的房地产市场政策调控，再加上有些地方的土地流拍，及有房地产企业面临着资金链断裂的风险等问题，有国内媒体就认为，当前国内的房地产市场调控已经到底，为了应对中美贸易战，为了降低国内经济下行的风险，这一轮的房地产市场有可能如2008年那样出现新调整，房地产市场调控的放松可能成为未来一段时间的趋势。但是，从国家统计局今年公布的数据来看，国内房地产市场不仅没有出现多少问题，反之国内房地产市场繁荣还在继续，住房的销售面积及住房销售金额仍然在历史高位上创新高，多数城市的房价仍然在上涨。如果在这种情况下让调控中的房地产政策或舆论逆转，那么国内房地产市场新一轮的价格暴涨又有可能发生，前几年的房地产市场调控有可能前功尽弃。

从国家统计局刚公布的数据来看，2018年1-8月份，全国房地产开发投资，同比增长10.1%，特别是住宅投资增长更是上升到了14.1%。比2017年1-12月高出3个百点。其增长速度不可谓不快。东北地区房地产开发投资更是增长到了17.3%。这样的增长岂能不是处于高位？

其次，1-8月份，房地产开发企业土地购置面积16451万平方米，同比增长15.6%，增速比1-7月份提高4.3个百分点；土地成交价款8177亿元，增长23.7%，增速提高1.8个百分点。从这两个数据来看，实际上与早些媒体所宣传的不少城市土地流拍多起来，房地产开发商不愿意进入土地市场报道有较大差距。今年前三个月，房地产开发商购置土地面积增长基本上处于负增长态势下，而之后几个月房地产开发商购置土地需求则是一浪高一浪，土地购置面积由负增长，到正增长15%以上，相差有18个百分点。这也意味着国内房地产商仍然看到未来的房地产市场，房地产开发商对土地购置需求越来越大。正因为，房地产开发商增加了对土地需求，从而使得土地交易价格更是增长了23%以上，国内土地的价格在全面上涨，一些城市的土地流拍仅是个例，并没有多少普遍性。

再就是从住房销售情况来看，住房销售面积增长是从2017年7月份近13%的增长下降到了4%左右，增幅下降的速度非常快。但住房销售金额增长基本上处于高位。1-8月份，商品房销售额增长达14.5%。基本上达到2017年1-12月的水平。尤其是西部地方商品房销售面积增长只有10.4%，但销售金额增长达到了28.2%。这些数据意味着，由于各种住房购买的限制政策，从而使得一些地区投资者无法进入市场，住房销售面积自然会下降。不过，住房销售面积增幅的下降，但住房销售金额增幅仍然处于高位。住房销售金额增长比住房销售面积增长要大10个百分点以上。这不仅意味国内房地产市场的投资为主导的属性基本上没有改变，也意味着全国多数城市的房价还在上涨。如果房价还在上涨，国内住房投资者是不会离开这个市场，只不过是增长了他们进入市场成本而已。

还有一个重要的数据就是8月份人民币贷款增长的情况。8月人民币贷款增加1.28万亿元，同比多增1834亿元。分部门看，住户部门贷款增加7012亿元，其中，短期贷款增加2598亿元，中长期贷款增加4415亿元；非金融企业及机关团体贷款增加6127亿元，其中，短期贷款减少1748亿元，中长期贷款增加3425亿元。从这些数据可以看以，整体上8月份的银行信贷增长达到14%以上，而个人银行贷款占整个贷款的比例达55%，国内居民还是在通过加杠杆的方式进入房地产市场。如果国内居民还是在以加杠杆的方式进入房地产市场，那么国内房地产市场增长还会继续。特别是从国内几大房地产开发商上半年的业绩爆发式的增长情况来看，国内房地产市场的增长态势及房价上涨态势基本上没有多少改变，改变的只是增幅而已。而这则成了国内政府保证经济增长的基本动力。

Guide: In the "housing reform" move completed the Chinese society "sucking the gold stone." At this time, there were a large number of housing houses in the market. So far, for the first time in China, there have been billionaires who have made a fortune by real estate. Coupled with the support of local governments, in the face of the rapid rise in housing prices, real estate has become a concept of wealth creation for Chinese families, but in the future it is likely to become a land of wealth.

China’s economic development has entered the so-called “new normal”, and things that have been obvious in the past may not necessarily be the case in the future. In the past ten years, real estate has been serving as the “golden stone” concept of the entire Chinese society. This has led to a general illusion that as long as you continue to invest and hold real estate, it will definitely bring high returns.

However, if we look at it from several aspects, we will find that in future investment options, real estate in mainland China may not be an option for drought and flood protection. On the contrary, property is likely to become a kind of asset for ordinary households. "Liabilities", most people are ignorant of this. Here is the "investment property, with more than two suites."

First of all, what I want to say is that the possibility of relying on real estate to continue to create wealth in the future is not great. That is the "vacant room"! As we all know, there is a huge surplus in China's housing stock, and many houses are actually vacant. But what is the specific number? Sorry, official statistics are not found. According to statistics from third-party agencies, China has created a house for 3.4 billion people. Some even say that the exact figure should be 6 billion. (Based on China's population of 1.4 billion or so, the number of empty houses is a bit exaggerated. And, you will definitely ask: When we walked through the city, we did not find so many vacant houses in the legend. In densely populated big cities, real estate is not just not left, but it is very scarce. In the first-tier cities, there seems to be strong demand behind the high prices.)

 This demand comes from China's largest resource - the uneven distribution of population. According to statistics, from the Beijing-Tianjin urban agglomeration in the north to the Dawan District of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, China's seven major urban agglomerations absorb 43% of the country's total population, accounting for 63% of China's nominal GDP and 56% of total national real estate sales. Over the past four years, 62% of the population has grown in these seven urban agglomerations, which are also the most effective areas for land use and the areas with the greatest real estate appreciation in the next five to ten years.

Especially for Beijing, Shanghai and other super-first-tier cities with urbanization rate of 87.9% and 86.5%, and 13 provincial administrative units with urbanization rate exceeding 58.52%, the population growth factor that supports housing prices does not fall is objective. . The probability of falling house prices in these places is small, but there is still room for further growth, and I am afraid it is difficult to assert.

Friends who lived in Guangshen in the north have a personal feeling in recent years, that is, there is basically no pure "buyer" in the main city, and almost all housing transactions take place between "changers." Homebuyers are often homeowners who sell their previously low-value properties and then add a portion of their cash to a better-valued property. The house, in the first and second tier cities, has almost become a "hard currency" for trading. In the second-hand housing market, the house itself has become a "currency" for exchange. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, in 2016, for example, China’s first-hand housing sold for 11.7 trillion yuan, plus second-hand housing transactions, the total amount was around 17 trillion, but the new amount of M2 in the same year was only 15.5 trillion, broad money. The funds created are not enough to support the real estate transaction. In this way, "replace bricks with bricks" seems to be more practical than "replace bricks with banknotes."

The implication is that the trend of property monetization has made the real estate market in big cities a game for families to play with each other. Those who have not been able to get on the train in time have long been excluded from this money game. They can only invest in the real estate market in cities below the third and fourth tiers with their depreciated cash in their hands. In these places, the more houses are covered, the fewer people there are, and the rate of rising house prices will never catch up with big cities.

With the continued differentiation of real estate prices in first- and second-tier cities and other regions. In the future, it is almost impossible for a foreigner who has no housing in the first-tier cities to buy real estate in the first-tier cities with the wealth created by labor. After all, there are only a handful of large cities that can afford high prices without falling, and they are placed in more than 300 prefecture-level cities across the country, accounting for a very small proportion. According to the data of WIND, the cities with a per capita GDP of over 100,000 are only Beijing (118,000), Shanghai (116,000) and Tianjin (115,000), and the fourth, fifth and sixth respectively are Jiangsu (97,000). Zhejiang (85,000) and Guangdong and Fujian (7.4 million). In most other regions, the per capita production value is only 30,000 to 50,000. The gap in the level of wealth between regions has also formed an insurmountable gap between the property market in various places. The first, second and third lines are distinct, forming a pyramid of real estate.

The owner of the first-line luxury homes at the top of the pyramid, after using real estate cash, is likely to remit funds to overseas allocation assets. The person at the next level of the Fortune Pyramid is responsible for the takeover, but the taker does not have enough cash. He can only sell his own property and add some cash before he can take over the property sold by the first-level people. The real estate sold by the taker needs a second-level purchaser to buy, and he also has to sell the real estate in his hands...

The crazy “changing house” property market is like a drum-and-drum game. The music rings, and the risk of real estate is passed down the top of the pyramid with the asset chain.

From the "base" of the pyramid, people on this level have no real estate to sell, and the only way they can pick up this huge base is to rely on loose bank credit. Just like the home loaners in the "Big Short" drama, they do not have enough wealth to support their real estate, they can only buy houses through bank credit. Once the bank adjusts its credit policy because of the potential risks, the base of the real estate pyramid will be greatly affected. For home buyers in small cities, this policy risk will be the biggest potential cause of a systemic crisis. With a little carelessness, the wealth of an ordinary family may be destroyed.

 Since last year, the fact that real estate developers have borrowed land for development in the third and fourth regions has been a worrying signal. This year, local governments have issued large debt financing and infrastructure investment, which is also considered as a “supporting measure” for the real estate industry. . According to the statistics of China Local Financing Report, most of the top 30 local financing platforms in China are real estate, construction, transportation, and infrastructure such as electric power. These industries are generally considered to have a direct effect on driving housing prices.

When ordinary people are not sure, they will use the money to buy local bonds, help the local government to engage in a new round of land development in disguise, and think that they can copy the old model of “land finance” more than ten years ago, and rely on new money to inject land into the industry to make a fortune. . However, under the financial background of “staying and not speculating” and the financial background of the global interest rate hike cycle, the chances of copying the old model of real estate are extremely low. This round of positive fiscal policy in China will eventually prove to be a contingency plan for local governments. The wool is on the sheep, and the last one is the ordinary person.

 For those at the top of this pyramid of wealth, seemingly “safe” real estate investments will bring many uncertainties in the future. The decline in the first- and second-tier properties is small, but buyers are faced with future taxation issues for real estate. The wealth of first- and second-line families will likely suffer losses, and the days will not be better than those of third- and fourth-line buyers.

In June 2018, the nationwide network of real estate registration information platforms was launched. This work will be carried out simultaneously in more than 3,000 real estate offices in 335 cities and 2,835 counties and districts across the country. The biggest role of this matter is to figure out a question that has stumped Einstein in the past: How many suites does a Chinese citizen have in the country? Previously, in May last year, the Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Leading Group adopted the “Overall Plan for the Construction of Personal Income and Property Information Systems”, aimed at high-income earners and high-priced property owners.

In fact, since 2007, China has completed a series of wealth-transparent actions such as bank account networking, marriage registration networking, corporate equity networking, and real estate registration networking. The greatest role of property information networking is not only to understand each person's wealth, but to collect taxes from each individual's assets.

 If you are a real estate tax collector, in order to collect more taxes, you certainly want to know more about the taxation object. In addition, as a tax collector, would you expect the price of one or two lines to fall? The answer is of course not desirable, as the property tax is charged proportionally based on the assessed value of the property. The higher the house price, the more taxes you have. This may be another reason why house prices in first- and second-tier cities will not fall in the future.

There is a saying that is good: the two things that are inevitable in life are taxes and death. The imposition of a property tax increases the cost of holding, and even if the property owner sells the property, he cannot completely evade taxes. When the law of property tax does not apply, the terms of personal income tax will be caught up. For example, in the “Tax Amendment” of June 2018, we also found provisions for the taxation of “property lease income” and “property transfer income”. That is to say, the owner of the property can not escape the tax sickle harvest. The higher the value of the home, the more bleeding. As far as the terms of the draft income tax are concerned, the highest rate is 45%.

It seems that the target of the property is too large, resulting in the property owner "Ya Li Shan Da", and because the Chinese people are really buying house addiction for many years, for a while, you may not be able to quit the real estate drug addiction. According to recent data released by the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and the US Consumer Finance Survey (SCF), Chinese households account for 69% of total assets, compared to 36% in the US. Many Chinese and foreign analysts and public opinion believe that this ratio is almost "suicidal." In the long run, even if the owner conceals his true property status in various ways during his lifetime, after his death, real estate, as the most important legacy of the individual, will inevitably eventually surface, and the estate tax will be imposed. . If the inheritor is incapable of paying taxes, the property may also face the possibility of being auctioned off by the bank...

In short, the “housing reform” has fulfilled the “golden stone” of Chinese society. At this time, there were a large number of housing houses in the market. So far, for the first time in China, there have been billionaires who have made a fortune by real estate. Coupled with the support of local governments, in the face of the rapid rise in housing prices, real estate has become a concept of wealth creation for Chinese families, but in the future it is likely to become a land of wealth.

The "incremental plunder" of China's property market from the barbaric growth of a decade ago has already reached the pyramid-like "stock game". The future development path will generally move toward "quantitative harvesting" with taxes and fees as a means. The networking of real estate information across the country is to complete the “quantitative” action, and the “harvesting” action is likely to be done through taxes, estate taxes and property taxes. These future wealth risks, how do you think about it?