为最年长的人接种新冠病毒疫苗，既拯救最多的生命，也挽救最多的寿命年数

Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life

——原载《美国国家科学院院刊》2021年第118卷第11期——

<PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA>(PNAS).2021, 118(11)

【摘要】许多竞争标准正在考虑优先考虑 COVID-19疫苗接种。基于年龄的两个标准是人口统计：挽救的生命和挽救的未来生命年数。为老年人接种 COVID-19疫苗可以挽救最多的生命，但是，由于老龄化伴随着预期寿命的下降，人们普遍认为这两个目标存在冲突。我们证明这是错误的。COVID-19死亡率的年龄模式是这样的，首先接种最老的疫苗可以挽救最多的生命，而且令人惊讶的是，还可以最大限度地延长剩余的预期寿命。我们在美国、德国和韩国凭经验证明了这种关系，并对生命表进行了数学分析。在通常情况下，我们的年龄风险结果也适用于健康风险。 

【关键词】人口统计学、COVID-19、疫苗、损失年数、年龄

[Abstract] Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks. 

[Key words] demography,COVID-19, vaccine, years of life lost, age

    本文的中文解析是针对论文“为最年长的人接种新冠病毒疫苗，既拯救最多的生命，也挽救最多的寿命年数”（Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life）的一篇解析。该论文发表于《美国国家科学院院刊》（PNAS）2021年第118卷第11期上，作者包括美国加州大学Joshua R. Goldstein、Thomas Cassidy和Kenneth W. Wachter。

（中文解析见《华人心理健康报》2021年9月17日PDF版）

论文原文：Joshua R. Goldstein, Thomas Cassidy and Kenneth W. Wachter. (2021). Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). 118(11). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026322118

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