新冠病毒大流行期间就地隔离政策效果评估

Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic

（原文载美国《国家科学院院刊》2021年第118卷第15期）

<Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 118(15)>

【摘要】我们估计了第一波COVID-19大流行期间就地避难（SIP）指令的影响。我们没有发现这些政策对疾病传播或死亡的可检测影响。我们发现随时间的消散，对流动性的影响虽小但可衡量。我们发现对失业的影响很小，延迟。我们进行了额外的分析，分别评估扩大与撤回SIP指令的影响，并测试其他州是否存在溢出效应。我们的结果与之前的研究一致，表明SIP指令在与大流行相关的流动趋势和经济中断中所占的份额相对较小。我们重新分析了之前的两项旨在表明SIP指令导致疾病流行率大幅下降的研究，并表明这些结果并不可靠。我们的结果并不意味着个人的社会疏远行为与SIP政策不同，是无效的。

【关键词】新冠肺炎，就地庇护政策，流动性，疾病传播，政府政策

[Abstract] We estimate the effects of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders during the first wave of theCOVID-19 pandemic. We do not find detectable effects of these policies on disease spread or deaths. We find small but measurable effects on mobility that dissipate over time. And we find small, delayed effects on unemployment. We conduct additional analyses that separately assess the effects of expanding versus withdrawing SIP orders and test whether there are spillover effects in other states. Our results are consistent with prior studies showing that SIP orders have accounted for a relatively small share of the mobility trends and economic disruptions associated with the pandemic. We reanalyze two prior studies purporting to show that SIP orders caused large reductions in disease prevalence, and show that those results are not reliable. Our results do not imply that social distancing behavior by individuals, as distinct from SIP policy, is ineffective.

[Key words] COVID-19; shelter-in-place policies; mobility; disease spread; government policy

论文原文：Christopher R. Berry, Anthony Fowler, Tamara Glazer, Samantha Handel-Meyer, Alec MacMillen. (2021), Evaluating the effects of shelter-in-place policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 118(15). https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118

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