转贴 2010-05-20 17:33:38
tigergoo评论：国际货币体系重构已经是图穷匕见，同志们如果不相信，可以等到年底验证。道琼斯千点跳水，极为蹊跷，绝对不是传闻说的那么单纯。
Richard Russell发出了迄今为止最严厉的警告：留存现金和黄金，卖出一切。
刘军洛兄对美元的预测很准，以秦统一六国的比喻来解释也贴切，但用传统视角看待黄金和美元的关系，是致命的。用刘兄的话说，应该这么说：“美元（与黄金）是不是会（同时）走出让全世界人与全体中国人都一辈子也看不懂的宏大行情呢！”

Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year Joe Weisenthal | May. 18, 2010, 8:57 AM

Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:
Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.
That's pretty intense!

Update: By popular demand, here's more on what he sees in the market. The gist is that the markets recent gyrations are telling him that the economy is in trouble:
And I ask myself, "Am I seeing things? The April 26 high for the Dow
was 11205.03. The Dow is selling as write at 10557 down 648 points
from its April high. If business is even better than expected, then
why is the Dow down over 600 points? And why, if there were 674 new
highs on the NYSE on April 26, were there only 20 new highs on Friday,
May 14? And if my PTI was 6133 on April 26, why is it down 17 points
since its April high?

The fact is that I've been seeing deterioration in the stock market
ever since early-April, and this in the face of improving business
news. The D-J Industrial Average is composed of 30 internationally
known top-quality blue-chip stocks. These are 30 of "America's biggest
companies." If Barron's is so bullish on the future of America's
biggest companies, then why isn't the Dow advancing to new highs?

Clearly something is wrong. But what could it be? Much as I love
Barron's, I trust the stock market more. If I read the stock market
correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that
surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a
collection of other troubles ahead.

About Dow Theory -- First, we saw the recent April highs in the
Averages. Then we saw a plunge in both Averages to their May 7 lows --
Industrials to 10380.43, Transports to 4298.12, next a short rally. If
ahead, the two Averages turn down and violate their May 7 lows, that
would be the clincher. Such action would signal the certain resumption
of the primary bear market.

Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded,
that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging
my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not
including golds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible). If
the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the
outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn
whether you have paper losses or paper profits!

道氏理论大师：道指破7日低点将出现大崩盘

2010年05月21日 00:30  新浪财经
　　新浪财经讯 道氏理论(DOW Theory)大师、《道氏理论通讯》(DOW Theory Letters)编辑理查德·罗素(Richard Russell)最近强烈建议投资者彻底退出股市，他认为，如果道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数双双跌破5月7日低点，股市将出现大崩盘(Major Crash)。

　　他在最近的投资报告中说到：

　　“帮你的朋友们一个忙。告诉他们，暴雨即将来临，赶快把船舱封起来。告诉他们，卖出所有能够卖出的东西，换取流动性。告诉他们，理查德·罗素说，到今年年底之时他们将认不出这个国家来。他们也许会反驳：‘罗素怎么可能知道？谁告诉他的？’告诉他们，是股市告诉我的。”

　　他进一步分析道：

　　“如果我对股市作出了正确的解读，那么它告诉我接下来将会有大事发生。这一大事将是经济重新探底，以及其他各种各样的麻烦。从道氏理论来看，我们先是看到道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数4月份屡创新高，然后两大指数5月7日分别暴跌至10380.43点和4298.12点(收盘点位)。如果未来两大指数击穿5月7日低点，这样的走势将确定无疑地意味着股市重新转入熊市。”

　　罗素建议其投资通讯的订户退出所有股票头寸，转为持有现金和黄金(1181.40,-11.70,-0.98%)(最好是实物黄金)。