附原文:
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON
AND
WHY KIM JONG UN WILL RULE LIKE HIS FATHER
By Tadie (December 21st, 2011)
The
death of Kim Jon IL has elevated his youngest son to the pinnacle of
power of North Korea and with it hope in the west that he will be a
reformer. Why does the west raise its hopes that he will be a reformer?
Because he studied in Switzerland and likes NBA basketball.
The
history of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century
has proven that argument to be a complete fallacy. Kim Jong Un will rule
just like his father and his grandfather before him. It’s what he knows
and what he has been taught to do.
There are many precedents for this proof.
The
current leader of Syria, Bashir Assad was educated in London to be an
eye doctor. He lived and studied there for years. It was assumed, prior
to the death of his father Hafez Assad, that he had no real inclination
to rule Syria. But, when the time came he readily took the reins of
power and ruled just like his father had. With an iron fist. Living in
western culture had changed him little once he was back in his native
culture and he had absolute power.
Libyan
dictator Moammar Khaddafi’s son Seif was to be his appointed successor.
He too had studied in the USA at prestigious Universities. He was
thought to be a moderate by the west and the west, including the USA,
thought that when he did assume power from his father that he could
reform Libya from its terrorist ways. History has of course changed that
dynamic. Moammar Khaddafi is now dead and Seif is imprisoned. However,
before his families fall from power he carried out brutal oppression
against the protestors with summary executiions, killing of women and
children, and other atrocities against the people. His western education
hadn’t changed him at all. He was well prepared to be a brutal dictator
and hold onto power for his father, and himself.
Yuri
Andropov, a former leader of Soviet Union and KGB Chief was fond of
American Jazz music. Initially, the west believed that perhaps he would
be a moderate, too, despite his KGB background – because he liked jazz
music from New Orleans.
With
the above examples, and there are other lesser known ones, I would not
be hopeful that Kim Jong Un will be a reformer of the North Korean
economy or society. Even if he wanted to, it would be nearly impossible.
The North Korean military consumes 25% of the national economy. I doubt
they would be in favor of giving up any power or wealth to the masses.
Kim Jong Un would be reluctant to irritate the military as well since
they are the force behind his hope to stay in power for life. So, in a
tacit relationship such as this Kim Jong Un perhaps depends on the
military more than they depend on him.
There
is no “upside” for Kim Jong Un to change the system. He will in time
have absolute power if he just maintains the status quo. Trying to
change it could tempt a military coup against him. It also doesn’t make
sense because history has shown that absolute rulers like power. They
are reluctant, if ever, wanting to give it up once it is attained. Hosni
Mubarek of Egypt ruled for 30 years until the ARAB SPRING took away his
power. Saddam Hussein’s family ruled Iraq like a private piggy bank for
decades until USA forces forced him from power and into hiding until
his eventual arrest and execution. Nicolai Ceasecu of Romania held onto
power to the last until his people over threw him and executed him and
his wife.
The powerful do not like to give up power. It’s dangerous to give it up. Even more dangerous to lose it.
Kim
Jong IL will not give up his power. He will not reform North Korea. He
will rule it just as his father did. Just like history has proven over
and over – he will repeat the history. All despots repeat history until
history catches up to them, as it eventually does, and their system is thrown to the trash of political history.
It
has been said that absolute power corrupts absolutely and it is true.
Kim Jong Un can only do what he knows, what he has been taught. It’s
absolute.