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老美看朝鲜:有其父必有其子

热度 5已有 1884 次阅读2012-1-4 12:57 |个人分类:老美看美国|系统分类:杂谈分享到微信


(前言: 俺孩子他爹喜欢没事写点时政评论,俺就忙里偷闲给翻译了一下,目的是让俺村里的乡亲们多一个角度了解鬼子是咋想的。好多事,光有咱自己的思想还不够,多听听多看看,会比较客观,所以,就在这里献丑了,多谢各位关注)



老美看朝鲜:有其父必有其子

为何金正恩将继承其父衣钵统治朝鲜

 

/他爹    翻译/ 他娘

20111221

 

金正日之死将他最小的儿子推上了北韩的权利顶峰。西方希望他成为一个改革者。为何西方有此希望?因为他在瑞士留学过,而且热爱NBA篮球赛。


20世纪和21世纪头十年的历史已经证明了上面的想法完全是荒谬的。金正恩一定会步其祖父和父亲的后尘进行统治。他只懂这些,学到的也是这些。


有很多先例可以证明这一点。


叙 利亚当前领导人巴斯尔阿萨德在伦敦求学想当一名眼科医生。他在那里求学生活了几年。在他的父亲哈菲兹阿萨德死亡之前,都以为他对于统治叙利亚没有什么倾向 性。但是,一旦他掌权的时间一到,他就继承了他父亲的衣钵。用铁拳进行统治。一旦他回到自己的文化里,并且拥有绝对的权力,生活在西方的经历并没有改变他 多少。


利 比亚独裁者卡扎菲的儿子赛义夫是他任命的继任者。他也在美国名牌大学读过书。他被西方认为是一个温和派。西方,包括美国,认为当他承担父亲的权力,他可以 改革利比亚的恐怖统治。当然,历史已经改变了这一动态。卡扎菲现在死了,赛义夫被监禁。不过,在他的家族失去政权之前,他已经对示威者进行了残酷压迫,未 经审判即执行枪决,杀害妇女和儿童,以及其他针对他的人民的暴行。他的西方教育并没有改变他。倒是为他成为一个残暴的独裁者,及牢牢为他的父亲和他本人掌 控权力做了充分的准备。


尤里安德罗波夫,前苏联领导人克格勃头头是美国爵士乐爱好者。起初,西方相信他可能也是个温和派,忽略他的克格勃背景不计的话因为他喜欢来自新奥尔良的爵士乐。


通过上面的例子,以及其他鲜为人知的例子,我对金正恩将成为北朝鲜经济或社会的改革者根本不抱希望。即使他想,也几乎是不可能的。朝鲜军队消耗着国民经济的25%。我怀疑他们会赞成放弃任何权力或财富给群众。金正恩也不愿意刺激军队,因为军队是他终身拥有权力背后的力量。因此,在这个默契关系里,或许金正恩对军队的依赖比军队依赖于他更甚。


金正恩改变体制也没有任何好处。他如果只是维持现状,就可以拥有绝对的权力。任何改变它的努力将诱发针对他的军事政变。这种体制改变也没有意义,因为历史已经表明,绝对统治者都喜欢权力。如果一旦拥有了这个权力,他们都不愿意放弃它。埃及被胡斯尼穆巴拉克统治了30年,直到阿拉伯之春夺取了他的权力。伊拉克萨达姆侯赛因的家族把伊拉克像一个私人储蓄罐一样统治了几十年,直到美国势力迫使他从权力的宝座跌落到东躲西藏的境地,直至他最终被逮捕并被处死。罗马尼亚的尼古拉齐奥塞斯库把持政权直到他的人民把他推翻并处死了他和他的妻子。


掌权者不喜欢放弃权力。放弃会很危险。失去权力更加危险。


金正日不会放弃自己的权力。他不会改革朝鲜。他将像他的父亲那样统治。就像历史已经一次又一次地证明的那样 - 他会重复历史。所有的暴君重复历史,直到历史赶上他们,最终,他们的体制被抛进政治历史的垃圾桶


据说绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败,这确实是真的。金正恩只能照样画葫芦。这是绝对的

 

附原文:

LIKE FATHER LIKE SON

AND

WHY KIM JONG UN WILL RULE LIKE HIS FATHER

By Tadie (December 21st, 2011)

The death of Kim Jon IL has elevated his youngest son to the pinnacle of power of North Korea and with it hope in the west that he will be a reformer. Why does the west raise its hopes that he will be a reformer? Because he studied in Switzerland and likes NBA basketball.

The history of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century has proven that argument to be a complete fallacy. Kim Jong Un will rule just like his father and his grandfather before him. It’s what he knows and what he has been taught to do.

There are many precedents for this proof.

The current leader of Syria, Bashir Assad was educated in London to be an eye doctor. He lived and studied there for years. It was assumed, prior to the death of his father Hafez Assad, that he had no real inclination to rule Syria. But, when the time came he readily took the reins of power and ruled just like his father had. With an iron fist. Living in western culture had changed him little once he was back in his native culture and he had absolute power.

Libyan dictator Moammar Khaddafi’s son Seif was to be his appointed successor. He too had studied in the USA at prestigious Universities. He was thought to be a moderate by the west and the west, including the USA, thought that when he did assume power from his father that he could reform Libya from its terrorist ways. History has of course changed that dynamic. Moammar Khaddafi is now dead and Seif is imprisoned. However, before his families fall from power he carried out brutal oppression against the protestors with summary executiions, killing of women and children, and other atrocities against the people. His western education hadn’t changed him at all. He was well prepared to be a brutal dictator and hold onto power for his father, and himself.

Yuri Andropov, a former leader of Soviet Union and KGB Chief was fond of American Jazz music. Initially, the west believed that perhaps he would be a moderate, too, despite his KGB background – because he liked jazz music from New Orleans.

With the above examples, and there are other lesser known ones, I would not be hopeful that Kim Jong Un will be a reformer of the North Korean economy or society. Even if he wanted to, it would be nearly impossible. The North Korean military consumes 25% of the national economy. I doubt they would be in favor of giving up any power or wealth to the masses. Kim Jong Un would be reluctant to irritate the military as well since they are the force behind his hope to stay in power for life. So, in a tacit relationship such as this Kim Jong Un perhaps depends on the military more than they depend on him.

There is no “upside” for Kim Jong Un to change the system. He will in time have absolute power if he just maintains the status quo. Trying to change it could tempt a military coup against him. It also doesn’t make sense because history has shown that absolute rulers like power. They are reluctant, if ever, wanting to give it up once it is attained. Hosni Mubarek of Egypt ruled for 30 years until the ARAB SPRING took away his power. Saddam Hussein’s family ruled Iraq like a private piggy bank for decades until USA forces forced him from power and into hiding until his eventual arrest and execution. Nicolai Ceasecu of Romania held onto power to the last until his people over threw him and executed him and his wife.

The powerful do not like to give up power. It’s dangerous to give it up. Even more dangerous to lose it.

Kim Jong IL will not give up his power. He will not reform North Korea. He will rule it just as his father did. Just like history has proven over and over – he will repeat the history. All despots repeat history until history catches up to them, as it eventually does, and their system is thrown to the trash of political history.

It has been said that absolute power corrupts absolutely and it is true. Kim Jong Un can only do what he knows, what he has been taught. It’s absolute.


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刚表态过的朋友 (2 人)

发表评论 评论 (4 个评论)

回复 180pig 2012-1-6 00:56
想起一则笑话---西餐叉子吃人肉。
回复 今又是 2012-1-4 16:27
同意。谢谢。
回复 yuanye8848 2012-1-4 14:10
孩子他娘:他爹说的正确。小蒋在苏俄留过学,且成为布尔什维克,但最后仍然反水步其老蒋之路。
回复 liuxiaoyu 2012-1-4 13:41
据说绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败
这句话在国内无数次听到过~~~~~
问好

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