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为什么川普和普京像被隔开的牛郎织女？
摘要:
美国国会“逼宫”成功了。川普总统星期二很不情愿地签署了新的对俄制裁法案，该法案同时针对伊朗和朝鲜。这大体相当于关闭了美俄改善关系的大门。俄方之前已经宣布将以驱逐755名美外交官作为报复，莫斯科的更多报复措施很可能还会跟进。
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美国国会“逼宫”成功了。川普总统星期二很不情愿地签署了新的对俄制裁法案，该法案同时针对伊朗和朝鲜。这大体相当于关闭了美俄改善关系的大门。俄方之前已经宣布将以驱逐755名美外交官作为报复，莫斯科的更多报复措施很可能还会跟进。
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“中美蜜月已经结束”的说法也在美国盛行，媒体报道说，川普政府将宣布咄咄逼人针对中国的贸易措施，尤其向知识产权和市场准入两大领域出手，诉诸301条款启动对华贸易战。
美国内部陷入政治混战，对外战略自相矛盾，核心团队在诸如朝鲜半岛这样的重点问题上发出明显相互打架的声音。
美国很正确，同时美国还很委屈，这种充满自恋的情绪在美国国会等精英圈子里弥漫。华盛顿应当制裁莫斯科，也不能饶了北京，同时要加紧收拾朝鲜和伊朗，这就是不少美国精英反复上涌的冲动。
然而美国的能量哪有那么大，它只会在各个方向都做出夹生饭。夹生饭可不是美国人喜欢的七成熟的牛排。
美国折腾这半年多，相信俄罗斯人和中国人都更珍惜俄中关系了。普京和川普都那么想改善俄美关系，但他们就像隔着银河的牛郎织女一样，没一块过的命。
中美有世界上最庞大的双边贸易做基础，但这个“富有家庭的夫妻俩”永远都攥着各自的工资卡，彼此充满怀疑。相比之下，还是中俄关系敞亮得多，不仅“门当户对”，而且有“共同语言”。
事实证明，今天的美国在重大外交关系上很保守，它缺少发起并驾驭实质改变的力量和决心，实际上更愿意“维持现状”，它对真正的风险是有几分惧怕的。
美国一施压，中俄就往一起走，事情远非这么简单。但中国和俄罗斯维护好两国的全面战略协作伙伴关系，就足以应对来自华盛顿的挑战。这是当今世界稳定的关键一环。
美国的国家本性决定了它不会根本上改善与北京和莫斯科的关系，但它也很难朝着对中俄发难的方向走太远。美国新的制裁俄罗斯法案实际效果有限，它只是固定了美俄的僵局。华盛顿所谓与北京打贸易战，所能涉及的贸易量只占中美贸易的很小一部分，更多有发泄情绪、“警告”北京的意味。
当下美国的问题如果总结成一句话，就是“不识时务”。世道变了，但美国的野心和脾气还那么大，而它的实力和德行又不足以服人，结果就是越来越成为国际社会的麻烦制造者。
现在对美唯唯诺诺的都是小国，或者日本这样的另类国家。欧洲稍有力量的盟友都受不了了，要造它的反。俄罗斯当然更不会买它的账。中国则信奉“中美关系好不到哪去，也坏不到哪去”，有足够力量和耐心“用两手对付它的两手”。
未来一个时期，中俄关系会进一步加强，中美关系将有中国能应对得了的波折，中欧关系会受美欧关系这个较大变量的影响，但大趋势也应是走好的。还有就是印度、日本对中国可能会惹出一些唧唧歪歪的东西，但它们都是小事了。 |
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